Browsing the archives for the Amp tag.

Why Engineering Standards For Evironmental Studies Are Needed

Green Reality, Political Reality

Ecology Ottawa conducted an analysis of political contributions made by housing developers to Ottawa City Councillors during the last municipal election.

In total, over $121,300 was contributed to winning candidates (the study did not examine contributions to losing candidates).  Top of the list was Gord Hunter who received over 49% of funding for his political campaign from developers.

Not surprising considering that Mr. Hunter is a member of the City’s Planning & Environment Committee.  Other members of the PEC that received substantial contributions are Bob Monet (32%) and Michel Bellemare (25%).

Fortunately the Chair and Vice-Chair of the committee had the integrity to decline such donations.  However, there is nothing other than personal integrity preventing them from doing so.

The municipal planning & environment committee is the only oversight that municipal environmental studies have.  The City of Ottawa has an indepedant Environmetal Advisory Committee, however, their mandate does not include quality assurance of environmental studies.

As far as the provincial Ministry of Environment is concerned, Class Environmental Assessments are conducted on a self-assessment basis.  These are the vast majority of environmental studies and the  province only requires that they be done and that they address prescribed content  - not that they be done properly!

For example the province only requires that proponents of Class Environmental Assessments consider alternatives and document their decision making process – not that they follow any specific decision making process, or even test that they have a sound process for evaluating decisions!  This is the loophole that allowed the City of Ottawa to ignore it’s own planning criteria in evaluating alternatives for the Terry Fox Road Expansion.

Another example is that the province does not provide clear-cut criteria for measuring the impact of a proposed project.  For example, the Terry Fox Road Expansion which threatens 3 endangered species (because it cuts across a Provincially Significant wetland)  is subject to the same process as the Hazeldean Road Expansion which poses no threat to endangered species (because it occurs in a semi-urban area).

So without minimum standards governing engineering practice to be followed when conducting Class EAs, there are no checks and balances in the process – other than the checks written by developers!

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No Choice At All

Political Reality

False Choices

The Charter of Rights & Freedoms protects us from unreasonable search.

Yet CATSA is searching Canadians on wholesale basis and since virtually all travellers are innocent, these searches are unreasonable as they lack probable cause. 

The Charter provides that the rights of the minority may be compromised to protect the majority, but in this case the rights of both the minority and the majority are being violated. 

Offering travellers a choice between two types of illegal search is no choice at all.

How You Can Protest

You can email the Transport Minister:  John Baird

You can email the Justice Minister & Attorney General of Canada:  Rob Nicholson

You can write a letter to the editor of your local newspaper.

You can post to blog sites. Blog postings are generally searchable so they will turn up in Google searches. Most newspapers have blog sites.

You can join a Facebook group such as “Stop TSA Full Body Scans” at

You can complain to the Canadian Civil Liberties Association by calling Graeme Norton, Director, Public Safety Project, 416-363-0321, x. 223. The CCLA has a rather weak policy position currently on this and could use some more backbone.

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Green Party passes NDP?

Green Reality, Political Reality

Nationwide

A new EKOS poll shows that Canadian support for the Green Party is significantly higher in all regions except for Alberta, where it is holding steady.

The EKOS poll asked Canadians “If a Federal election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?”.

Nationally, 13.4% of Canadians would vote Green, up 2.2 points. In British Columbia, Green support has jumped 6.2 points to a high of 18.5 and a similar jump of 5.1 points appears in Atlantic Canada.

Ekos January 2010 Poll

Canada (MoE 2.4)

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8)
Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1)
NDP: 16.0 (-1.0)
Green: 13.4 (+2.2)
Bloc Quebecois*: 9.8 (+0.6)
Undecided: 14.7


The EKOS poll would have you believe that the Green Party has now surpassed the NDP in both Ontario and Quebec.  A review of the statistics shows (sadly) that this conclusion is premature.

Provincial Details

British Columbia (MoE 7.32)
Conservatives: 34.2 (-0.8)
NDP: 25.9 (-2.9)
Liberals:  21.4 (-2.2)
Green: 18.5 (+6.2)

Note that with a margin of error of 7.32, the Green Party could place as high as 2nd in BC standings, but more than likely in 3rd place as only 1/2 of the MoE is needed to overtake the Liberals.

Alberta (MoE 8.95)
Conservatives: 61.7 (+1.0)
Liberals: 15.0 (+1.1)
Green: 13.2 (-1.9)
NDP: 10.0 (-0.4)

With a MoE of nearly 9, the Green Party could also place 2nd in Alberta on the high side and drop to a 2% last place on the low side.  Again only 1/2 MoE is necessary to take 2nd place.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 11.55)
Conservatives: 48.6 (-4.5)
NDP: 27.3 (+6.8)
Liberals: 12.4 (-5.2)
Green: 11.7 (+2.9)

The MoE is almost the same as the entire Green score.  Both the Greens and Liberals are barely statistically significant in the mid-west.  Is this the Oil Sand’s effect skewing the Saskatchewan results?

Ontario (MoE 3.91)
Liberals: 36.0 (+2.5)
Conservatives: 35.4 (-3.6)
Green: 14.3 (+1.6)
NDP: 14.2 (-0.6)

The MoE of close to 4 indicates that the Greens & NDP are tied for 3rd in Ontario as are the Liberals and Conservatives for 1st.

Quebec (MoE 4.85)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.2 (+1.4)
Liberals: 27.5 (+2.9)
Conservatives: 14.6 (-2.7)
Green: 10.2 (+1.5)
NDP: 9.6 (-3.2)

Statistically, the Greens, Conservatives, and NDP are tied for 3rd in Quebec.

Atlantic Canada (10.82)
Conservatives: 32.6 (-2.6)
Liberals: 28.4 (-2.8)
NDP: 27.2 (+0.3)
Green: 11.8 (+5.1)

With a MoE of close to 11 the Green Party is not statistically relevant in Atlantic Canada and there is a 3-way horse race for 1st.

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Grim Outlook for US Banks in 09

Economic Reality

According to RBC Capital Markets, more than 1,000 US banks may fail over the next 3 – 5 years as commercial loan losses pile up.  This would be on the same level as the great savings & loan collapse back in 1988 – 1990 when 1,386 lending institutions failed.

To put that into perspective, according to the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, FDIC, there are 8.309 lending institutions in the USA and only 25 failed in 2008.  Yet 9 have already failed in one month so far in 2009.

The Royal Bank’s recently published Q109 financials also bear witness to the sorry state of US banking.  The Royal’s Provision for Credit Losses (PCL) in US banking soared from $10M in Q107 to $71M in Q108 to $200M in Q109 = 75% of the total PCL for the Royal Bank. 

Royal Bank Gross Impaired Loans

The Royal’s US Gross Impaired Loans (GIL), illustrated above, - which are loans that are highly likely to become credit losses – also soared from $0.1B in Q107 to $0.6B in Q108 to a staggering $2.2B in Q109 = 63% of the total GIL. 

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NonTraditional Governments In Canada

Political Reality

Coalitions

Coalition History In Canada:

1867 – John A MacDonald (National) Conservative-Liberal

1867 – John S MacDonald (Ontario) Conservative-Liberal

1878 – John A MacDonald (National) Conservative-Liberal

1891 – John Abbott (National) Conservative-Liberal

1917 – Robert Borden (National) Conservative-Liberal

1920 – Arthur Meighen (National) Conservative-Liberal

1926 – Arthur Meighen (National) Conservative

1931 – John Bracken (Manitoba) Progressive Conservative

1940 – John Bracken (Manitoba) Conservative Cooperative Commonwealth Federation (CCF)

1941 – John Hart (BC) Liberal & Conservative Coalition

1949 – Ingemar Johnson (BC) Liberal & Conservative Coalition

1985 – David Peterson (Ontario) Liberal NDP Coalition

1989 – Roy Romanow (Saskatchewan) Liberal – NDP

Note that 10 out of 13 involved leaders from the Conservative party.

Non-Elected Federal

There have been 12 designated Prime Ministers in Canada, half of which were Conservative:

      1873 – Alexander Mackenzie – Liberal

      1891 – John Abbott – Conservative-Liberal

      1892 – John Thompson – Conservative

      1894 – Mackenzie Bowell – Conservative

      1896 – Charles Tupper – Conservative

      1920 – Arthur Meighen – National Liberal & Conservative Party

      1926 – Arthur Meighen – Conservative

      1948 – Louis St. Laurent – Liberal

      1968 – Pierre Trudeau – Liberal

      1984 – John Turner – Liberal

      1993 – Kim Campbell – Conservative

      2003 – Paul Martin – Liberal

John Abbott and MacKenzie Bowell were non-elected Senators while Charles Tupper and John Turner were never elected as an MP.

Non-Elected Ontario

There have been 15 designated Premiers of Ontario:

1867 John S MacDonald - Liberal-Conservative

1872 Oliver Mowatt – Liberal

1896 Arthur Hardy – Liberal

1899 George W Ross – Liberal

1914 William Hearst - Conservative

1930 George Henry  - Conservative

1942 Gordon Conant  -  Liberal

1943 Harry Nixon  - Liberal

1948 Thomas Kennedy  - Conservative

1949 Leslie Frost  -  Conservative

1961 John Robarts  - Conservative

1971 Bill Davis  - Conservative

1985 Frank Miller  -  Conservative

1985 David Petersen  - Liberal

2002 Ernie Eves  - Conservative

Non-Elected Quebec

There have been 22 designated premiers of Quebec:

1873 Gédéon Ouimet – Conservative

1874 Charles Boucher de Boucherville – Conservative

1878 Henri-Gustave Joly de Lotbinière – Liberal

1879 Sir Joseph-Adolphe Chapleau – Conservative

1882 Joseph-Alfred Mousseau – Conservative

1884 John Jones Ross – Conservative

1887 Louis-Olivier Taillon – Conservative

1887 Honoré Mercier – Parti National

1891 Charles Boucher de Boucherville – Conservative

1892 Louis-Olivier Taillon – Conservative

1896 Edmund James Flynn – Conservative

1900 Simon-Napoléon Parent – Liberal

1905 Lomer Gouin – Liberal

1920 Louis-Alexandre Taschereau – Liberal

1936 Adélard Godbout – Liberal

1959 Paul Sauvé – Union Nationale

1960 Antonio Barrette – Union Nationale

1968 Jean-Jacques Bertrand – Union Nationale

1985 Pierre-Marc Johnson – Parti Québécois

1994 Daniel Johnson – Liberal

1996 Lucien Bouchard – Parti Québécois

2003 Bernard Landry- Parti Québécois

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A Carbon Tax Is Inevitable

Economic Reality, Green Reality, Political Reality

Canadians emit an average of 19 tons of CO2 per person per year compared to 8 in the UK and even less in Scandinavia. A cap and trade system will limit the growth of CO2 emissions but it will not really help diminish them very quickly.

Cap & Trade

This is because all cap & trade systems are based on limiting growth in emissions above their current level – forcing companies to become more emission efficient if they are to grow. If a company cannot reduce emissions faster than they intend on growing, then it must trade to get credits that another company is able to generate via “excess” reductions in their reduction program.  The idea is to progressively lower the cap over time, and this clearly takes a while to bring emissions down.  For example the European Union has had a cap & trade system in place for nearly 30 years but only 2 of 25 countries actually have cap limits below historical levels!

Since a cap & trade system is based on limiting the quantity of emissions, the value of the credits is largely determined by how fast the cap is reduced.  If the rate of quantity reduction is too high, not enough credits can be generated to be traded and the cost of compliance soars.  On the other hand if the rate of cap reduction is too slow, then the value of the credits are too low to be worth obtaining.

It is well known and widely accepted that current levels are too high. In fact Kyoto is all about reducing emissions by 6% below the 1990 level. Without effective government leadership, Canada is now running 22% above our 1990 level – a full 28% off target.

Carbon Tax

The main alternative to a cap & trade system is a carbon tax.  This essentially fixes the price of compliance at a known level and corporate environmental impact planning is significantly clearer.  The downside is that companies could choose to absorb the tax as a cost of doing business if it is not high enough – thereby resulting in insufficient reduction in emissions.

It is inevitable that Canada and the USA will impose a carbon tax since it is the only proven way to make any real progress on diminishing CO2 emissions. It has worked in other countries (without killing their economies) and it can work here.  For example, the European Energy Agency estimates that the EU-15 has spent approx 1-2% of its GDP annually on environmental protection measures since 2001 and all those countries realized GDP growth rates equal to or higher than Canada and the USA during this decade.

Inevitability

The fallacy of so-called “intensity-based” targets is evident in any chart that shows whether progress is being made or not relative to Kyoto commitments. Since the USA did not sign Kyoto, only Canadian data is available from official sources as illustrated below:

United Nations Data

So if intensity-based targets are meaningless, and if we have to do something about this intolerable situation sooner rather than later, we need a real mechanism for reduction.  Carbon taxes can work and can also be used in combination with a cap & trade system.  In fact in Europe, more and more countries are adding some form of carbon tax into their national policy for emission reductions as a means of accelerating compliance under the EU-wide cap & trade system.

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